Sunday, April 19, 2020

Very Brief Blog: Leavitt Partners Data and Projections on "Flattening the Curve"

In the last several days, some interesting research from Leavitt Partners on the COVID epidemic, social distancing, and flattening the curve.  These concepts are crucial to state reopening efforts.

On April 17, 2020, see an online article by Richards, Gong, and Muhlestein on whether, how much, and when social distancing is "flattening the curive."  Webpage here.   See their article April 13 in FierceHealthcare here.

See the homepage for COVID-19 online modeling at the Torch Insight division of Leavitt Partners, here.  This has elaborate online analytics and projections that you can enter and display in different ways.

Also on April 17, see the webpage for the release of a 5-page PDF white paper on their projections for "flattening the curve."  This webpage asks you for email registration and then sends you a white paper link immediately.

From the online modeling webpage cited above.  Example of Leavitt projection for New Jersey:

Leavitt / New Jersey
For New Jersey, above, Leavitt estimates a volume of 1192 ICU cases in 3 weeks, and a shortage of ICU beds of 514. 

In contrast, while there are many fewer total cases now in Iowa, below, Leavitt estimates a volume of 478 ICU cases in 3 weeks, and a shortage of ICU beds of 262.  (Note that many ICU beds are filled with non COVID cases; the number of open beds may be a low percent).  Iowa:

Leavitt / Iowa