Monday, January 18, 2021

Very Brief Blog: Open-Access Article on Risk Predictors for COVID Mortality (It's your AGE)

In the journal Critical Care Explorations, Kattan et al. (Cleveland Clinic) publish a detailed model for risk factors for severe morbidity and death from COVID.  

Find it here.  The authors argue that better risk projections will better allow resource allocations - e.g. vaccines.

The paper builds data for a fairly complex nomogram (Figure 2).  Interestingly, risk by age rises steadily from age 20 to 55, at which point you have about 75% of the maximum age risk points.   They show readily modest additional risk from 65 to 70, from 70 to 75, from 75 to 80.  

Another observation is that the risk points in aging from age 20 to 40 is about the same as the risk in going from a normal BMI to an extreme BMI of 50.

See original PDF for details and an explanation of the key chart:

The data was developed on 4500 patients (early 2020) and further validated on ad additional 3150 patients (mid 2020).   Changes in treatment in future quarters could shift the accuracy somewhat.