According to an analysis presented by Healthcare Dive, the 2021 savings (or overruns) in the Direct Contracting Model ranges from -30% to plus 30%, averaging -2%. For 2023 forward, the program has been renamed "ACO Reach." Despite the wide outliers, nearly all programs clustered in the plus-minus 10% range.
See the article here:
In the dot plot below, the Y-axis ranges from minus to plus 30%. The X-axis is plan size, with Clover being much larger than the other plans.