On June 14, 2021, the WaPo ran an article headlined, "Coronavirus infections are dropping where people are vaccinated, rising where they are not," here.
Is that true overall, and statistically significant? Yes. Figure here:
|Cases tend toward upper left, lower right|
States tend to map out toward the upper left and lower right, following the commonsense rule, more vax, less COVID.
Update: New York Times Data
I was looking at today's NYT online data of similar rates, and put them into Excel for the 50 states and DC and PR. I got a simple Excel correlation of -0.5 (negative zero point five), which is surely statistically significant but still leaves a broad "cloud" of data points. See the screen shot below.
States with a favorable case rate of 1 or 2 can come in anywhere from 35% to 65% vaccinated. Some states with well above average vaccination rates (OR, WA around 55%) come in far above average in cases (at 6).
|Excel; Cloud link|
Last Fall's Peak and Plummet in Dakotas
I saw a chart very recently that 30-40% of U.S. kids remained in school this school year just ended (I believe mostly in Southern states) all year, whereas schools around Los Angeles where I live were locked out from March 2020 right through til May/June this year. Very different norms from place to place.
Covid in the Air: Breathing vs Talking vs Singing
There was a very interesting paper by Bazant and Bush in PNAS this spring suggesting that breathing transmits very little COVID, much higher with speaking, and much much higher with singing (or, of course, coughing - here; graphic below). Essayist Holman Jenkins remarked in WSJ, "in a state that weeks ago successfully vaccinated its 50-plus population, I saw an elderly couple driving alone in their car masked up like they were venturing into a Yunnan bat cave." (NPR on bat caves last week.) He was making the point we badly need better COVID public education; I'm often left wondering that doesn't fully sink in how much we probably still don't know.
|Bazant 2021; Singing (top), quiet breathing (bottom)|
Will Different Covid Rates Impact Behavior, Or Will We Just Live With Them?
Local to Los Angeles County, where I live, we have a current epidemic that is far, far higher in several northern cities, Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Lancaster. For example, Palmdale had 209 cases the past 2 weeks, whereas Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades, upscale Westside neighborhoods with roughly similar population, had only 16 cases. I made notes and some graphics here.