Monday, May 11, 2020

Very Brief Blog: The Louisiana COVID Success Story Deserves Attention

Monday's LA Times carries a story that California has fallen in the ranking of states with a successful COVID response, with case rates still rising markedly - here.  The story quotes on Sunday talk show with Christopher Murray of University of Washington - remarking,

"“Some good-ish news coming out of New York and New Jersey and Michigan, where the death cases and death numbers are coming down faster than expected,” Murray said Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “Some other states where cases and deaths are going up more than we expected — Illinois and then Arizona, Florida, California as examples of that.”

Louisiana as an Early Hotspot

We heard in March that Louisiana and especially New Orleans was becoming a high-COVID population, (also here), typically traced to an influx of travelers for Mardi Gras (February 25 this year).  Genetic studies suggest that New York tourists were a key factor - here.   

Sharp Drop in Cases in Most of Louisiana, Especially New Orleans

Less publicity to the fact that Louisiana and New Orleans thereafter saw a sharp drop, especially in New Orleans, in new cases.   This is less true in central and northeast Louisiana, but it is true in many districts.  See May 9 story here, see figure below.

For example, in the chart below, the overall chart for Los Angeles right now looks a lot like Louisiana-Northeast-Region 8, and nothing like New Orleans, Region 1.

Click to enlarge


LA Times also had an additional story on Monday, about California being on a prolonged plateau with a substantial death rate neither rising or falling.   See LAT story by Lin & Lee, here.   As I mentioned earlier, we look like Louisiana Region 8 above:

LA Times. May 11, Lin & Lee