Sunday, December 9, 2018

Steeply Falling Valuations: HLI, Nanthealth, Vermillion

Wall Street Journal has posted a story that Human Longevity Inc (HLI) is raising funds under the strictures of a "down round," which has lowered the valuation from $1.6B  eighteen months ago, to $310M today (negative 80%).   The round would raise $25M under rules (WSJ uses the word "onerous") that would protect new investors.   WSJ story here.  MedCity here.   (MedCity links to a cloud term sheet which I don't believe WSJ did (here).)

According to the Journal, employee headcount has fallen from 300 to 150, and "its chief executive officer, chief medical officer and chief operating officer all departed in 2017, according to their LinkedIn profiles."   Google suggests that Chief Technology Officer has also been a rapidly passed-along title.

Other Declining Valuations

Other declining valuations include NantHealth, which was valued at $18.54 on 5/28/2016 and 79 cents per share today (4.2%).   

Another example of downward valuation would be Vermillion, which markets ovarian cancer laboratory tests.  VRML started at $310, on 11/1/2000, during the original internet/biotech bubble.  However, after slipping to $30 in the 2002 selloff, it later rose to $123 in September 2003, falling to 30 cents in December 2008, and rising to $32 in February 2010, related to FDA and CMS approvals.   On December 7, 2018, it closed at 52 cents.  Over the past four years, sales in 2014-2017 at Vermillion are about $2-3M per year, GAAP losses around $10-20M per year.  If you roll back to quarterly investor calls around the time of FDA approval (9/2009) and Medicare LCD coverage (3/2010), I believe (from memory) the company's management forecast was for revenue very near term in $millions, then $10s of millions within a few years.