Monday, July 28, 2025

Medicare to Hold Public Advisory Meeting on GI Metaplasia Tests

 Noridian has posted a Multi Jurisdictional CAC Meeting on September 4, 2025.

The topic will be, Multi-Jurisdictional CAC Meeting Announcement - MolDX: Molecular Testing for Detection of Upper Gastrointestinal Metaplasia, Dysplasia, Neoplasia.

Find it here:

https://med.noridianmedicare.com/web/jeb/policies/lcd/cac

  • An "Agenda" has been posted, but it's very brief.  
  • Wait for the "key questions" document, which is not posted yet.
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See a press release on July 17, 2024, from Lucid Dx - find it here.
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MolDx LCD (e.g L39256) does not cover molecular Barrett's testing.  It lays out a framework for coverage, but concludes no tests yet meet the framework.

  • Although there are several promising molecular biomarker tests designed to further identify at-risk patients, this contractor finds that there are currently no existing tests that have demonstrated AV, CV, and clinical utility (CU) to fulfill the necessary criteria. 
  • This contractor will continue to monitor the evidence and may revise this determination based on the pertinent literature and society recommendations.
That version dates from 2023.  Results of the public meeting might bolster the current non-coverage decision, or, might lead MolDx  to flip to a favorable coverage decision.  To be continued.

###

See my blog about the original 2023 decision here.


HSBC Releases MidYear Report on Biotech Investments

 HSBC has released a lengthy, information-backed report on biotech (and genomics) investing for 1H2025, with a multi-year perspective.

Find the July 17, 2025 press release here.  It's the third annual mid-year report.

Find the 68-page PDF here.  (And track down that web page for earlier reports.)

Here's HSBC's top line summary:

  • Many venture-backed companies finished 2024 struggling to secure new investor-led capital. During the first half of 2025, overall deal volume dropped, but mega rounds helped set a two-year high for invested capital during Q1. 
  • With questions, continued headwinds and uncertainty lingering from Q2, our 2025 Mid-Year Venture Healthcare Report takes a magnifying glass to the year so far.

For example, see page 26:


Or page 36:





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AI CORNER

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Here's an AI summary.

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Here’s a detailed summary of the HSBC 2025 Midyear Venture Healthcare Report, aimed at your highly experienced genomics and biopharma readership. 

The report provides a broad yet data-driven synthesis of 1H 2025 venture trends across biotech, diagnostics, computational biology, and pharma-tech, with key implications for genomics investors, platform companies, and those seeking alignment with biopharma development and commercialization strategies.


🔬 Executive Summary for Genomics-Savvy Investors

The HSBC Midyear 2025 Healthcare Venture Report breaks new ground by dissecting healthcare venture trends into detailed verticals with special attention to:

  • Computational biology (Comp Bio) as a distinct sector

  • Platform genomics companies across early-phase financing

  • Valuation dynamics and M&A/IPO exit timing

  • The intersection of R&D tools and biopharma investment behaviors

It’s an essential read for investors and genomics startups aiming to align their narratives and partnering strategies with what biopharma and financial markets are actually funding and acquiring.


🔍 What’s New and Notable

1. Comp Bio Is Breaking Out

The report formally recognizes Computational Biology (Comp Bio) as a standalone venture category, separating it from Dx/Tools and Biopharma. This reframing matters for genomics readers because many of today’s sequencing and bioinformatics firms now blur the lines between tools and platforms.

  • Valuations are climbing: Median valuations for Comp Bio deals reached $29M in 1H 2025, up from $7.4M in 1H 2023.

  • Key subcategories include protein design, IVF tech, and AI-driven drug discovery.

  • Investor attention is high even though exits remain rare; this implies long-cycle bets with strategic value.

2. Step-Ups, Flats, and Write-Downs

Across sectors, HSBC introduces a visual and statistical lens on valuation movement—step-up, flat round, or step-down—and correlates this with exit strategies and time to IPO. For genomics CEOs, this is a wake-up call to track post-money valuation inflation relative to performance and commercial traction.

3. Biopharma Partnering Themes

Even though biopharma investing slowed slightly, it remains top-heavy: the largest Series A round in 1H 2025 was $579M for a platform company at $1.8B valuation. The report distinguishes platforms from indication-specific companies and documents upward trends in cardiovascular and metabolic funding, while oncology remains robust. For genomics firms pitching to biopharma, aligning platform messaging with therapeutic value creation is key.

4. VC-Backed Exits Are Highly Selective

Both IPOs and M&A events reveal that only a few firms reach public markets or high-value acquisitions—and these tend to have:

  • Validated biomarkers or companion diagnostics

  • Demonstrable clinical outcomes

  • Strategic relevance to big pharma portfolios

A cautionary tale: one 2025 IPO in neurology raised $148M at a $428M post-money valuation—but traded down to a $60M market cap within months.

5. Pharma Tech as a Cohesive Sector

HSBC aggregates previously diffuse pharma enabler segments (supply chain, market access tech, digital R&D) under a new umbrella: Pharma Tech. This matters for genomics companies who offer platforms for trial optimization, AI matching, and lab automation—this is now a recognizable investment vertical.


🧬 Why This Matters to Genomics and Precision Medicine Players

  1. Platform companies in genomics should recognize that biopharma continues to fund platform plays, but with increasing selectivity. Pitch decks should clearly articulate how the platform maps onto drug development pain points.

  2. AI-driven genomics and multi-omic diagnostics live in a hybrid zone across Dx, Comp Bio, and Pharma Tech. Investors are increasingly comfortable with this hybridization, but companies must tailor their partnering strategies accordingly.

  3. Understanding exit environments is essential for long-term positioning. This report reveals how post-money valuations at financing may or may not align with acquisition or IPO values. CEOs need to backtest their future scenarios with these datasets.

  4. Cross-disciplinary collaboration is rising. As Comp Bio and Pharma Tech become recognized verticals, the old walls between "diagnostic" and "therapeutic" business models are breaking down—and the smartest genomic companies are navigating both sides.


🎯 Who Should Read This (and Why)

  • Genomics platform CEOs and founders: To understand where the money is moving and what exit multiples are realistic.

  • Investors in computational biology: For insight into a sector that is rapidly gaining legitimacy as its own venture class.

  • Pharma BD & alliance managers: To see where the strategic capital is flowing—especially into cardiovascular and protein engineering.

  • Venture partners and analysts: To benchmark deal sizes, syndication patterns, and how "step-up" valuations compare across cycles.

Friday, July 25, 2025

July 25, 2025: WSJ Reports HHS Will Replace USPSTF Membership

Late Friday afternoon, July 25, 2025, Wall Street Journal reported that HHS plans to replace all 16 current members of the United States Public Services Task Force (USPSTF).

The source was attributed to "persons familiar with the decision."  (Some sources later in the day quoted HHS as responding, "No final decision" was made.  See Biospace 7/28.)

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Typically, USPSTF has two gateway roles in preventive services.   First, USPSTF-endorsed services must be covered by commercial insurance with no copay. Second, CMS is allowed to create new preventive services in Medicare via National Coverage Determination, but only for the services that were first endorsed by USPSTF.

Find the WSJ here:
See my earlier blog on USPSTF news, starting with the June Supreme Court case, here:


##
A detailed article against the USPSTF appeared in "The American Conservative," and is being cited frequently.  July 9, here:

CAP Today Features Plasma Microbial DNA Testing

For five years, there has been steadily rising interest in clinical applications of pathogen metagenomics - tests that assay 100's of pathogens concurrently using NGS.

The topic is featured in the July 2025 CAP TODAY, and includes a trackback to an April 2025 webinar that is available to stream.

Find the article by Sherrie Rice here:

https://www.captodayonline.com/for-infectious-disease-plasma-microbial-cf-dna-testing/

Find the webinar here:

https://www.captodayonline.com/harnessing-the-power-of-microbial-cell-free-dna-practical-insights-for-implementing-metagenomic-sequencing-in-your-lab-april-22-2025/


###

AI CORNER

###

Here’s a high-level professional summary of the uploaded CAP TODAY article (April 2025 issue) titled “Metagenomic sequencing comes into its own in clinical practice” by Sherrie Rice focusing on the use of plasma microbial cfDNA (mcfDNA) testing and spotlighting a large Bay Area referene lab, Karius.


Summary for Lab Directors and Clinical Stakeholders:

The CAP TODAY feature highlights the increasing clinical integration of metagenomic sequencing, particularly through microbial cell-free DNA (mcfDNA) plasma testing. It centers on the Karius Test, a leading platform that identifies over 1,000 pathogens—including bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites—via next-generation sequencing (NGS) of cfDNA extracted from a standard blood draw.

Key Highlights:

  • Clinical Utility: The article provides compelling examples of how the Karius Test delivers actionable insights in difficult diagnostic cases. Dr. David Hong (UCLA) and Dr. John Perfect (Duke) underscore its value for deep-seated infections, atypical pathogens, and immunocompromised patients, where traditional culture and PCR often fall short.

  • Real-World Cases: Cases cited include diagnosis of Nocardia, Aspergillus, and rare pathogens in febrile neutropenia or post-transplant settings. The speed and breadth of detection are particularly beneficial in patients with nonspecific symptoms or sterile-site infections.

  • Diagnostic Algorithm Integration: Institutions such as UCLA and Duke are working toward formally integrating mcfDNA testing into clinical pathways, often after initial workups are inconclusive. There is growing emphasis on defining test indications and determining the optimal point in the diagnostic timeline.

  • Challenges & Opportunities: The article doesn’t ignore hurdles—test interpretation can be nuanced (especially with colonizing organisms), and reimbursement remains a moving target. Yet consensus is growing that metagenomic cfDNA adds significant value when used judiciously in the right populations.

  • Future Direction: Karius is expanding its clinical utility data and engaging in studies to support broader adoption. The article implies that metagenomic plasma testing is moving from "boutique" to mainstream, with increasing institutional support.


Takeaway:
This is a balanced yet positive appraisal of the Karius Test and mcfDNA metagenomics more broadly. For lab directors and clinicians tracking advanced diagnostics, it reflects a pivotal moment in infectious disease testing—where plasma-based metagenomics is shedding its novelty and becoming a serious clinical tool. The article serves as a call to evaluate how, when, and where your institution may integrate such technologies into standard care, particularly for complex or immunocompromised cases.

 ###

Webinar AI Summary from Auto Transcript

###

 Certainly — here’s the same detailed content as bullet points, suitable for pasting into HTML or text format:


Summary of CAP TODAY Webinar: “Harnessing the Power of Microbial Cell-Free DNA” (April 22, 2025)

Featuring Karius and OSF Healthcare

  • Webinar Overview
    CAP TODAY hosted a webinar exploring the use of microbial cell-free DNA (mcfDNA) testing via metagenomic sequencing, focusing on the Karius Test and its implementation at OSF Healthcare.

  • Technology Introduction (Dr. Tim Blauwkamp, Karius)
    Dr. Blauwkamp presented the core technology: sequencing microbial cfDNA in plasma to detect pathogens without culture. Karius developed proprietary methods to reduce noise (e.g., contamination) and accurately quantify pathogen DNA, treating infection diagnostics as a form of "liquid biopsy."

  • Clinical Implementation (Dr. John Ferrell, OSF Healthcare)
    Dr. Ferrell described OSF’s structured approach to integrating the Karius test. The test is embedded in EPIC and restricted to ID providers. They average ~5 tests/week, and two-thirds return actionable positives. The test has proven valuable for diagnosing infections in patients with AIDS, cancer, or FUO.

  • Case Highlights
    Clinical cases showed how Karius testing detected Toxoplasma gondii, Mycobacterium abscessus, Histoplasma, and Pneumocystis jirovecii—often earlier and more definitively than cultures or imaging. The test frequently avoided invasive procedures like bronchoscopy.

  • Turnaround Time & Operations
    97% of results are returned within 24 hours of lab receipt. The workflow includes overnight sequencing and automated analysis. Reports list only significant findings, with quantitative values and optional resistance marker follow-ups.

  • Stewardship & EMR Integration
    OSF uses built-in EMR prompts to prevent duplicate blood cultures or inappropriate orders. Only ID physicians can order the Karius test, supporting strong stewardship and efficient resource use.

  • Economic Impacts
    By avoiding invasive diagnostics and reducing hospital stays, OSF sees significant savings. As Dr. Ferrell put it: “If I can diagnose and discharge a patient faster, someone else can use that bed.” This aligns with value-based care and system-wide efficiency goals.

  • Literature Support
    Over 200 publications support Karius, including Mayo Clinic’s 2025 study on Fever of Unknown Origin (FUO). In that cohort, Karius was the sole diagnostic tool identifying infection in 15 of 69 patients—roughly one-third of infectious FUO cases.

  • Takeaway Message
    Metagenomic mcfDNA testing is no longer niche—it’s a practical, impactful clinical tool for identifying pathogens when conventional methods fail. Thoughtful integration and stewardship remain essential to its success and sustainability.


Let me know if you'd like a version with HTML tags added.

Thursday, July 24, 2025

New White Paper on Intersection of Diagnostics with Biopharma - International Perspective

Let me point to a new multi-stakeholder white paper that was just highlighted by Dun Liang, the director of Global Regulatory Affairs / Diagnostics, at Lilly.    The white paper has authors from Lilly, Merck, Sanofi, J&J, consultancy Hanson Wade, and others.   It's based on a conference in June 2024.

Liang essay introducing the white paper:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-diagnostic-regulation-matters-pharmaceutical-current-dun-liang-tqzff/

Liang at Linked In:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dunliang/

Liang writes,

  • This first-of-its-kind white paper explores the critical role of diagnostics—particularly Companion Diagnostics (CDx)—in modern pharmaceutical development and precision medicine. 
  • Co-authored by a cross-industry subject leaders, the paper provides a comprehensive overview of global regulatory frameworks, including those in the U.S., EU, Japan, and China, and offers practical insights for integrating diagnostics into therapeutic product strategies.

##

Connect directly to the white paper PDF here:

https://world-cdx.com/about/content-hub/#


Here's how the white paper opens:

  • Subject matter experts attended the World CDx Regulatory Affairs & Policy Summit in Boston in June 2024 (organized by Hanson Wade). Following the conference, diagnostic regulatory experts from across the pharmaceutical industry formed a working group to provide an overview and propose recommendations in the format of this white paper.
  • This white paper explores the evolving impact of global diagnostics regulation to support therapeutic product development, focusing on their application in clinical trials, navigating regulatory landscapes, and discussing pragmatic considerations. Specific emphasis is placed on the role of the new and specialized function known as Precision Medicine or Diagnostic Regulatory Affairs, highlighting its value in pharmaceutical development to ensure timely patient access to cutting-edge therapies while navigating regulatory landscapes effectively.
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AI CORNER

Find an AI summary here.

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Lilly: Infographics on Turnaround Time for Cancer Biomarkers

Lilly has a website for improving turnaround time for biomarkers in lung cancer.  Find it here:

https://medical.lilly.com/us/diseases/disease-education-resources/oncology/non-small-cell-lung-cancer/answers/infographic-minimizing-turnaround-time-for-molecular-testing-among-patients-with-nsclc-199474 

The webpage leads to a one-page infographic PDF and also to a one minute video.


For limited samples, consider an additional biopsy pass, and flag usable blocks in the path report.

For delayed ordering, use education and/or reflex or algorithmic testing.

For extended analysis time, consolidate testing.  

For lack of provider integration, consider patient navigaters, improved record-keeping, and enhanced EMR technologies.


News items: FDA AI Software Hallucinates. Politico Sees Lobbying Boom for H

Two news items today.

FDA HALLUCINATIONS

An article at CNN (subscription) says that FDA software that aims to assist staff is hallucinating and "wastes a lot of extra time."

Quoting, "The FDA’s head of AI, Jeremy Walsh, admitted that Elsa can hallucinate nonexistent studies."

Another quote remarks, "If Elsa gives a one-paragraph summary of, say, 20 pages of research tied to a particular new drug, there is no way to know whether it misrepresents something or misses something that a human reviewer would have considered important, one FDA employee said."

More here:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/07/23/politics/fda-ai-elsa-drug-regulation-makary



LOBBYING BOOM

POLITICO highlights facts about the boom in Washington lobbying across the healthcare industries.  The highlights article tracks back to a deeper-dive subscription article (aka Politico Pro).

PHRMA spent $7.6M in the second quarter, AHIP $4.0M, and AHA $6.1M.

Read more here:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-pulse/2025/07/23/a-health-care-lobbying-boom-00469043


Monday, July 21, 2025

Two Health Affairs Articles Predict Pain Points for AI in Health, and Solutions

Health Affairs publishes a pair of articles from Kovatch et al., Mt Sinai, on AI in healthcare (barriers and successes).

https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/ai-s-health-care-journey-code-clinic-strategies-progress-part-1

https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/ai-s-health-care-journey-code-clinic-strategies-progress-part-2

Chat GPT offers a summary and composite.

###

Mount Sinai’s two-part Health Affairs articles outline how AI can transform health care through enhanced research, operations, and patient care, but only with robust data infrastructure, governance, and interdisciplinary collaboration. They emphasize that AI success depends on clinician trust, regulatory clarity, and continuous validation within a learning health system framework. Ultimately, the papers provide a blueprint for health systems to responsibly scale AI from pilot projects to routine clinical practice.

#### HAIKU

Data flows with care,
AI learns, adapts, refines—
Humans guide the way.

####

Consolidated Summary and Assessment of

Kovatch et al., "AI’s Health Care Journey From Code to Clinic: Strategies for Progress" (Health Affairs, July 2025, Parts 1 & 2)


Summary for Expert Readers

These paired articles from Mount Sinai leadership (Kovatch, Darrow, Freeman, Gavin, Stump, Nadkarni) present an expert-level, inside view of how one major U.S. health system has operationalized AI across its clinical, research, and operational domains. Together, they offer a comprehensive roadmap for AI integration in health care, moving from theoretical potential (Part 1) to implementation strategy (Part 2).


Part 1: The Opportunities and Challenges of AI in Health Care

Core Thesis:
AI is not merely an adjunct technology but a foundational tool to transform health care across research, care delivery, operations, and patient experience. However, this potential is constrained by enduring barriers in data quality, model generalizability, governance, legal frameworks, and clinician trust.

Highlights for Experts:

  • Research Acceleration: AI expedites discovery from genomic datasets and real-world clinical data, targeting drug development and care optimization.

  • Operational Gains: AI-driven triage, scheduling, and clinical alerts improve efficiency and resource allocation.

  • Patient Engagement: Chatbots and AI-assisted tools enhance patient interaction, especially for routine or administrative needs.

  • Continuity of Care: AI platforms integrate fragmented data silos, aiding multidisciplinary care teams.

  • Mount Sinai's Infrastructure: 'AI-Ready Mount Sinai' centralizes data governance, addressing bias and portability challenges through robust validation.

  • Legal & Ethical Considerations: Liability remains unresolved; rigorous institutional oversight is essential alongside evolving FDA guidance.

  • Learning Health System Model: Embedding AI into iterative cycles of feedback and practice improvement ensures models adapt over time.

Assessment:
Part 1 convincingly argues for AI's transformative potential but does not understate the obstacles. It highlights Mount Sinai’s pragmatic stance on risk management through data centralization, transparent governance, and iterative validation aligned with real-world complexity.


Part 2: Strategies for Achieving Impactful AI Integration

Core Thesis:
Real-world AI success in health care depends on robust infrastructure, interdisciplinary collaboration, and structured governance frameworks, coupled with alignment to regulatory, ethical, and educational imperatives.

Key Strategies Detailed:

  1. Data & Infrastructure: Integrated, secure data pipelines across modalities (EHR, imaging, claims, patient-generated data) are non-negotiable for successful AI.

  2. Collaborative Ecosystem: AI requires cross-functional teams; clinician champions are critical. Mount Sinai partners with industry (e.g., SAP, HPI) and has embedded AI education into clinical training pipelines.

  3. Governance Models: Structured oversight governs project selection, validation, monitoring, and sunset protocols. Continuous post-deployment monitoring addresses performance drift.

  4. Regulatory Clarity & Trust: Advocates for interpretable AI and clearer FDA pathways for adaptive algorithms to foster clinician and patient confidence.

  5. Federated Learning & Data Sharing: Emphasizes multi-institutional collaboration to reduce bias and improve generalizability without compromising privacy.

  6. Workforce Development: Calls for AI fluency within clinical training, advocating interdisciplinary education reform.

  7. Remote Data Integration: Highlights the need for interoperable pipelines to incorporate wearable and home-based health data into clinical decision-making.

Assessment:
Part 2 is more tactical and offers a credible playbook for health systems navigating AI adoption. The Mount Sinai examples demonstrate both local impact and alignment with broader policy goals (trust, interoperability, fairness). It is strongest where it links operational governance with the iterative learning health system philosophy.


Consolidated Assessment

For an expert audience, these articles are valuable not because they present groundbreaking theory but because they distill Mount Sinai’s real-world, system-wide approach into transferable insights. They underscore:

  • The necessity of aligning AI strategies with health system goals, governance structures, and regulatory frameworks.

  • The critical role of data quality, interoperability, and clinician buy-in.

  • The interplay between local deployment and broader policy advocacy.

Strengths:

  • Concrete examples from a leading academic health center.

  • Balanced view of opportunities vs. systemic barriers.

  • Thoughtful integration of AI into the broader learning health system framework.

Limitations:

  • Heavily institution-specific; not all health systems have Mount Sinai's resources.

  • Understates commercial pressures and vendor dynamics influencing AI adoption.

  • Limited attention to patient perspectives beyond data consent.


Takeaway for Experts

The Mount Sinai experience illustrates that AI in health care is as much about organizational change, governance, and data culture as it is about algorithms. These papers provide a model framework that others can adapt, especially those in leadership, policy, or academic roles seeking to move from pilot projects to system-wide adoption.

Friday, July 18, 2025

HHS Posts Provider Requests for De-regulation (May 14-July 14 comments)

 In May, HHS requested comments from the nation's healthcare provides on how to smooth burocracy and lead de-regulation.

Find a summary of major association comments at Fierce Healthcare here:

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/regulatory/providers-tell-hhs-deregulation-starts-prior-auth-mips

Fierce Healthcare doesn't link directly to a comment archive source, but there appear to be 975 at this regulations website:.  There's also a remark here, "13,308 comments received" so many might not be online yet.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/AHRQ-2025-0001-0001


See for example the 16-page ACLA comment -


  • On page 13, they ask that CMS remove an arbitrary and agency-created (not statutory) rule about "new information" from the ADLT review process.  
  • They also ask CMS to enforce requirements that Medicare Advantage plans cover LCD- and NCD-based services.
  • LCDs and NCDs should be more transparent and timely; specific examples provided.  

An AI-Based Teaching Lesson: Developing Tests That Will Pass or Fail MolDx Review (Example: DCIS Breast Cancer)

AI Prompt:   This non coverage LCD is for tests that evaluate recurrence risk (and thus radiation benefit) in DCIS breast cancer.  DL40142.

The LCD document is of high value to many companies developing molecular tests, because they try to understand how MOLDX scientists and clinicians think when making coverage decisions and writing policies.   

Explain with examples how MolDx extensively reviewed data for these "DCIS" tests and found that the data was lacking.   Either molecular data was not replicated enough, not powerful enough, or not clearly demonstrated to be better than nomograms or clinical guidance rules for low-risk patients who would not benefit from added postsurgical radiation.   

Your audience is CEOs and chief science officers developing molecular tests at startup companies, typically at the Series B or C stage.   You can write at the graduate or postgraduate level.

Note also the focus on event rates - if events are rare (like 5 relapses per 100) then, for example, 100 cases will not be a large enough "N" to give a good statistical sample of the target rare events.

###

  • While using AI to generate the lessons is fun, if you really want to understand how MOLDX thinks, download and read the full original policy decision.

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AI CORNER RESOURCES (including a podcast)

  • Chat GPT writes below.  
  •   See an alternate write up by Google LM.  
  •       See a 17-minute Google LM "Teaching Podcast" - here.



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What Startups Should Learn from MolDx’s LCD on DCIS Risk Stratification Tests

For CEOs and CSOs at molecular diagnostic startups, the MolDx non-coverage policy on DCISionRT and Oncotype DCIS Score is instructive in several key ways about how MolDx evaluates molecular diagnostics. This LCD provides an unusually detailed blueprint into MolDx’s expectations — both in reasoning and in evidentiary thresholds.

Key Lessons from MolDx’s Evaluation Approach:


1. MolDx Demands Direct Comparison to Existing Tools, Not Just “Added Insight.”

MolDx explicitly expects molecular diagnostics to demonstrate clear superiority over existing clinicopathologic tools like the MSKCC nomogram or Van Nuys Prognostic Index (VNPI).

Example:
MolDx criticized DCISionRT and Oncotype DCIS Score for failing to show they outperform these established models. In one head-to-head study of MSKCC vs. Oncotype DCIS Score, there was 92% concordance, meaning the molecular test did not identify risk groups meaningfully differently in practice .

Implication for Startups:
You must benchmark your test directly against the current standard of care — and show where and why you are better. “Adds another data point” is not sufficient.


2. Data Must Be Statistically Robust and Replicated Across Cohorts.

MolDx repeatedly criticizes the small sample sizes and inconsistent results in the low-risk cohorts for these tests.

Example:
MolDx highlighted that DCISionRT’s low-risk group often had single-digit recurrence events (e.g., 4 vs. 12 recurrences), which leads to wide confidence intervals and inconclusive findings (p > 0.05).

MolDx also pointed out that newer cutoffs (e.g., DS2 = 2.8) were derived from re-analysis of old data without sufficient external validation. Studies lacked independent validation cohorts, leaving questions of reproducibility.

Implication for Startups:
Design your validation studies for statistical power within the subpopulations that will drive clinical decisions. Ensure external validation in independent cohorts is complete before seeking coverage.


3. Clinical Utility Must Be Proven, Not Theorized.

MolDx requires evidence that the test changes management in a way that affects health outcomes, especially in Medicare populations. Impacting radiation decisions isn’t enough if the benefit is statistically trivial.

Example:
DCISionRT’s “low-risk” patients still showed relative risk reduction with RT; MolDx noted that the observed benefit (~5%) wasn’t statistically conclusive due to small numbers, and therefore claims about safely omitting RT are not substantiated.

Implication for Startups:
You need robust clinical utility studies showing how your test leads to safer or more efficient care, not just changes in provider behavior.


4. MolDx Expects Clear Definition of “Low Risk” Tied to Clinical Impact.

MolDx is not impressed by arbitrary score cutoffs or marketing terms. They define “sufficiently low risk” explicitly: an absolute reduction in recurrence risk from RT of ≤5%. Tests must clearly identify such patients with validated accuracy.

Example:
MolDx criticized studies for inconsistent definitions of "low risk," varied inclusion of factors like age or tumor size, and inconsistent recurrence rates across cohorts. This muddles the claim that molecular tests are identifying patients who can safely avoid RT.

Implication for Startups:
You must define and defend your clinical risk thresholds in terms aligned with clinical practice impact and Medicare's benefit-to-risk frameworks.


5. “Rhetorical Proof” Is Not Scientific Proof.

MolDx calls out the fallacy of tests being used merely to persuade patients or doctors (“rhetorical proof”) rather than meeting a robust evidentiary standard.

Example:
MolDx observed some SMEs championed DCISionRT because it reassures patients about skipping RT, but MolDx rejects that as insufficient for coverage if not backed by statistically sound data.

Implication for Startups:
Avoid leaning on "decision-support narratives" unless backed by robust data. MolDx wants evidence of superior performance, not convenience in shared decision-making.


6. Multi-Factor Models Must Show Incremental Value.

If your test combines molecular and clinical factors, you must show how the molecular piece specifically adds value over the clinical data alone.

Example:
MolDx criticized both DCISionRT and Oncotype DCIS for including overlapping clinicopathologic factors already in nomograms — questioning whether the biomarkers provide independent predictive power.

Implication for Startups:
Your analytical and clinical validation must isolate the molecular contribution and demonstrate why it matters.


7. Medicare-Centric Evidence Is Required.

MolDx repeatedly emphasizes the need for Medicare-relevant data, especially in older populations, which are both the predominant DCIS cohort and the primary Medicare demographic.

Implication for Startups:
Ensure your validation cohorts reflect the age, health status, and clinical context of Medicare beneficiaries.


Final Thought: MolDx’s Transparent Playbook

This LCD shows that MolDx operates with a clear set of expectations:

  • Direct comparison to existing tools.

  • Statistically robust evidence.

  • Clinical utility tied to meaningful outcomes.

  • Medicare population relevance.

For startups at Series B/C stage, this clarity can help de-risk product development and align evidence-generation strategies for reimbursement success.

###

PLUS

###

Additional Lesson: Rare Event Rates Require Much Larger Sample Sizes

One of the most important statistical lessons from the MolDx LCD — and one that many startup diagnostics companies overlook — is the impact of rare event rates on study design and evidentiary thresholds.


Why Rare Events Demand Larger N:

In DCIS, the relevant clinical question is often identifying patients whose risk of recurrence after surgery (with or without RT) is very low, typically around 5% over 10 years. That is, out of 100 patients, only five or fewer will experience a recurrence.

This low event rate creates a major statistical hurdle:

  • In any cohort of 100 patients, observing only 5 events leaves your study underpowered to detect meaningful differences between groups.

  • Small absolute numbers (4 vs. 6 recurrences, or 5 vs. 7) generate wide confidence intervals and increase the risk of false negative or non-significant findings even if a real effect exists.

  • With such small numbers of events, conclusions about the impact of radiation therapy or the predictive power of a biomarker become fragile and often unreliable.


MolDx’s Specific Criticism:

MolDx repeatedly points out that the published studies on DCISionRT and Oncotype DCIS were consistently underpowered for their intended purpose.
For example:

  • In the so-called low-risk groups, there were often only single-digit numbers of recurrences.

  • Some studies split these few events across treatment arms (e.g., 4 vs. 12 recurrences with or without RT), leading to non-significant p-values and wide 95% confidence intervals.

  • A study showing a 1% or 2% difference in recurrence might look reassuring to clinicians, but MolDx will not consider such findings statistically reliable without appropriate sample sizes.

MolDx specifically rejected claims that the tests could identify populations with no benefit from RT, pointing out that such conclusions were built on insufficient event counts and underpowered analyses.


Implications for Startups Developing Molecular Tests:

If you are developing a test to predict rare events (≤ 5% incidence), you must design studies accordingly:

  • Sample sizes must be large enough to accumulate a statistically meaningful number of events in each risk category and treatment arm.

  • Hundreds, not dozens, of events may be necessary. This typically requires cohorts numbering in the low thousands, not the low hundreds, especially if you intend to stratify further (by RT vs. no RT, age, endocrine therapy use, etc.).

  • If using existing retrospective datasets, ensure your sample size planning considers event rates, not just patient counts.


Summary for CEOs and CSOs:

When event rates are low, small N studies are misleading. They create the illusion of precision without the statistical power to support regulatory or payer coverage decisions. MolDx expects mature companies to understand this. If you are developing a test targeting rare outcomes, plan for large, well-powered studies from the outset or risk an unfavorable coverage decision.


AI "Mind Map' (Google LM)



It's That Time...Proposed PLA Codes Released to Public Viewing

Each quarter, the AMA gathers PLA code applications, posts them for public comment, and schedules a review meeting.  Here come codes for the July 1 quarterly cycle.

For a year-long calendar, here.  You can register for the upcoming August 6 virtual meeting here.  You can also review the PLA agenda by finding it on that page, or specifically here.

For those of you thinking ahead, the next application deadline is September 9 (aka October 1 cycle).

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I tally by hand about 29 codes, of which 16 are new, 11 are deletions, and 2 are revisions.  Of the 29 codes, 5 are in the infectious disease space.

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Thursday, July 17, 2025

MedPAC releases annual data book, new members announced.

 A few weeks ago, MEDPAC released its annual "Report to Congress" on various aspects of the Medicare program.

Now on July 17, 2025, they release the annual DATA BOOK.  Find it here:

https://www.medpac.gov/document-type/data-book/

Or see the 216 page PDF here:

As occurs in Social Security, the number of workers per Medicare beneficiary is declining (p 19):


Regarding birth rate, US currently has about 3.5M live births per year, of which about 0.2M or 5% are from parents not here legally (an issue currently in the courts).


NEW MEMBERS OF MEDPAC

See an announcement of new members for MEDPAC.

I'll quote the new member information in full.

The newly appointed members are Thomas Diller, M.D., MMM, Vice President of the Population Health Services Organization at AdventHealth and President of the AdventHealth Provider Network in Maitland, FL, and Gokhan Metan, M.Sc., Ph.D., NACD.DC., Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of WiseCareAI and founder and Chief Technology & Analytics Officer of Full Spectrum Insights in St. Louis, MO. Their terms will expire in April 2028. Betty Rambur, Ph.D., R.N., F.A.A.N., Professor of Nursing and Routhier Endowed Chair for Practice in the College of Nursing at the University of Rhode Island in Kingston, RI, was appointed as Vice Chair, and her current term will expire in April 2026. 

The reappointed members are Robert Cherry, M.D., M.S., Chief Medical and Quality Officer at UCLA Health in Los Angeles, CA; Kenny Kan, FSA, CPA, CFA, MAAA, Vice President and Chief Actuary of Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey in Newark, NJ; Gregory Poulsen, MBA, Senior Vice President at Intermountain Healthcare in Salt Lake City, UT; and Scott Sarran, M.D., founding Chief Medical Officer of Harmonic Health, which provides virtual care and care management for dementia patients across the country and is based in Saint Charles, MO. Their terms will expire in April 2028.

Congress established MedPAC in 1997 to analyze access to care, cost and quality of care, and other key issues affecting Medicare. The Comptroller General is responsible for naming new commission members.

Brief biographies of the new commission members and new Vice Chair are below:

Thomas Diller, MD, MMM, is Vice President of the Population Health Services Organization at AdventHealth, a health system with over 50 hospitals across nine states, and is also President of the AdventHealth Provider Network. His current roles at AdventHealth involve supporting value-based care initiatives for the health system's physician network. Previously, Dr. Diller was Vice President of Population Health and Quality Transformation for Blue Cross Blue Shield of Louisiana, which provided Medicare Advantage and commercial products. His responsibilities included engaging with the health plan's provider network to support value-based payment programs and coordinating clinical transformation efforts to improve health care quality. He also held leadership positions with health systems such as ChristusHealth in Texas and Greenville Health System in South Carolina. Dr. Diller received his MD from Southern Illinois University School of Medicine and his Master of Medical Management (MMM) from Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College. He is Board Certified in Internal Medicine.

Gokhan Metan, MSc, PhD, NACD.DC, currently serves as the Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer at WiseCare AI Inc., an AI startup focused on matching Medicare and Affordable Care Act (ACA) beneficiaries with the most suitable healthcare coverage through a proprietary intelligence platform. In addition, Dr. Metan is the Founder and Chief Technology & Analytics Officer of Full Spectrum Insights, a consulting firm specializing in data infrastructure, cloud computing, machine learning, AI, and software delivery. Dr. Metan has served as an executive in organizations ranging in size from Fortune 100 companies to start-ups with the aim of creating reliable, high-impact technologies that improve healthcare access and outcomes. Prior to his current roles, Dr. Metan held executive positions at Centene Corporation, a publicly traded managed care company; SSM Health, a not-for-profit U.S. healthcare system; and Humana, the second largest Medicare Advantage insurer in the country. He is Directorship Certified by the National Association of Corporate Directors (NACD.DC) and serves as Chairman of the Board at WiseCare AI Inc. Dr. Metan holds dual Master of Science degrees in Management & Industrial Engineering and earned his Doctor of Philosophy in Operations Research with a minor in Finance from Lehigh University.

Betty Rambur, PhD, RN, FAAN, is Professor of Nursing and Routhier Endowed Chair for Practice in the College of Nursing at University of Rhode Island. She was the Founding Dean of the College of Nursing and Health Science at University of Vermont and served as Chair of Nursing at University of Mary in Bismarck, ND.  Dr. Rambur previously led North Dakota’s private/public health reform partnership that led to omnibus reform legislation and also served as the only nurse on Vermont’s Green Mountain Care Board, a five-member independent board that regulates health care in Vermont and provides oversight of the transition from fee-for-service to value-based care.

For more information about MedPAC, contact executive director Paul Masi at (202) 220-3700. Other inquiries should be directed to Sarah Kaczmarek, Managing Director of GAO Public Affairs at media@gao.gov.

New CLIA Policies at CMS; New MolDx Policies for Transplant and Breast DCIS

CMS issues some minor revisions to the CLIA operations manual.   Most seem to focus on mult-site locatons under one CLIA certificate, but review all changes closely.

https://www.cms.gov/files/document/r230soma.pdf

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BREAST CANCER DCIS LCD

MolDx brings out a biomarker LCD for risk stratification in DCIS (breast cancer in situ).    The LCD appears to distinguish between "rhetorical proof" and "enough data."

For LCD DL40142    The request letter appears to be from June 10, 2020, for DCISionRT.  It gives conditions under which a test COULD be covered, but if I read it correctly, no existing test meets that bar yet.   MolDx writes, 

"While it is desirable to have a tool that identifies a population with no relative risk reduction from RT (claimed lack of response to RT) for decision making and for supporting such decisions as a rhetorical proof, we conclude that there is insufficient data currently to convincingly support the assertion that any current biomarker test has demonstrated it can identify such a population, nor does this contractor believe this is a reasonable nor a necessary requirement for a useful test. This was a central rationale presented at the CAC by SMEs for use of such tests, yet this assertion is most easily explained by a failure to identify statistical significance of RT use in the low-risk groups by an underpowered data set from which such conclusions could not be drawn."

MolDx appears to cite lack of proof of improved performanced and outcomes with molecular testing.  Writing, 

"clinicopathologic risk assessments have demonstrated the ability to identify sufficiently low-risk patients and can be accessed by anyone. The advancement of newer technologies must come with direct comparison to the current best options available and be founded on the best-available evidence. To date, the only published direct comparisons of a biomarker test to one of these clinicopathologic risk assessments (in a Medicare-relevant population) has not demonstrated a significant difference in risk stratification[55] or improved performance.[54]

My conclusion that the LCD won't cover any current DCIS test is supported by the lack of any coding or billing article.  And the non-coverage conclusion was also the reading of Chat GPT AI.  See AI article here.   I also ask Chat GPT what the heck the term "rhetorical proof" means.


###
The DCIS proposed noncoverage DL40142 is more interesting in light of a prior active LCD, L36912, coverage for Oncotype DCIS, dated 2017, which 40142 appears to reverse.  (??).

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SOLID ORGAN TRANSPLANT LCD

MolDx also rolls out Molecular Testing for Solid Organ Graft Rejectiion, L40058.   It's based in part on a 11/2022 CAC meeting.   If I'm reading it correctly, it is presented as a new LCD and not a revision.   

It will be important to closely compare this proposal to the existing graft rejection LCD.   Topics like coverage of "surveillance" testing have been under discussion for several years.  MolDx had an original LCD, then an updated LCD that lingered a year before being canceled (including a CMS presss release!), and then a promise that "someday" a new revised LCD would appear.  So that "someday" seems to be today, July 17.  Meanwhile, in the field of transplant as well as the field of MRD, MolDx has been tucking more and more key information into the text of families of Z codes rather than into LCDs or billing articles - here.

The draft LCD specifically refers to "surveillance" timepoints as 4 per year 1 (Kidney), 12 per year 1 (heart, lung), and 2 per year thereafter.

Here are the full transplant LCD rules, as well as an AI structured re-rewrite of the LCD rules.

https://brucedocumentblog.blogspot.com/2025/07/ai-explains-moldx-transplant-lcd.html


CareDx Market Cap Falls

In early trading on July 17, CareDx was down about 40%, from around $20 to $12.

The MolDx-proposed testing schedule of 4 in year 1 and 2 in year 2, would be less than the "Allosure Routine Testing Schedule," or ARTS, published by Pai et al. in 2021, with 7 tests in year 1, 4 in year 2. [Cited in passing by MolDx as Ref 76). 

Read about CDNA at 360Dx.



Wednesday, July 16, 2025

CMS Solicits Comments on Pricing Software as a Service

Update. Paragon Health on the two rules in general - here.   Hogan Lovells LLP on the rules here.

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In both the summer 2025 Physician Fee Schedule Proposed Rule (entry point here) and Outpatient Proposed Rule (entry point here), CMS requested public comment on how it should price Software as a Service.

Here's an AI writeup of the two-page OPPS Federal Register solicitation.  

OPPS RFI at pp 33565-6.  PFS RFI at pp. 32506-7.  Comments are due in 60 days (around September 15). 

##
AI CORNER

##

OPPS SAAS INFORMATION REQUEST

CMS is actively soliciting public comment on how to establish payment policy for Software as a Service (SaaS) technologies under the Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS). This request arises because of the growing use of SaaS tools, including AI-based software, in clinical decision-making and the lack of a clear, consistent payment methodology across settings.

Key Areas Where CMS Seeks Input:

  1. Factors for Payment Rates
    What should Medicare consider when setting SaaS payment rates? Should costs include acquisition, maintenance, development, or other factors?

  2. Appropriate APC Assignment
    Should SaaS be paid through existing clinical APCs, new technology APCs, or new dedicated APCs for software?

  3. Cost Assessment Methods
    How should CMS evaluate hospital acquisition costs for SaaS? What benchmarks or methodologies are appropriate?

  4. Data Sources for Rate-Setting
    Given limited claims data, what alternative sources could CMS use to establish realistic payment levels? Examples might include hospital invoices, market research, or cost modeling.

  5. Discrepancy in Costs
    Why are Medicare claims data often showing lower geometric mean costs for SaaS than manufacturers’ stated prices? Is this due to reporting practices, acquisition models, or other factors?

  6. Value and Efficiency
    How should CMS factor in SaaS efficiencies (e.g., operational savings, faster diagnostics) in hospital outpatient and ASC settings?

  7. Quality and Efficacy
    How can Medicare payment policies reflect the clinical value, quality, and efficacy of SaaS technologies?


Context:
Historically, CMS packaged SaaS into payments for the primary clinical service (e.g., MRI image processing). More recently, separate payments have been made under New Technology APCs or clinical APCs. However, CMS lacks a dedicated policy framework, and stakeholders argue this inconsistency can impede patient access and market adoption.

CMS highlights challenges like non-transparent R&D costs, lack of comparator services, and limited claims data as barriers to creating fair and predictable payment rates.

Parallel Rulemaking:
CMS is also soliciting similar comments on SaaS under the Physician Fee Schedule (PFS).


HOW IS THE PFS SOLICITATION DIFFERENT THAN THE OPPS ONE?

####

Key Differences Between OPPS and PFS SaaS 

Comment Solicitations (CY 2026 Proposed Rules)

Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS) Solicitation:
Under OPPS, CMS is primarily focused on how to pay hospitals and ASCs for SaaS technologies used in outpatient settings. CMS emphasizes challenges around:

  • Assigning SaaS to APCs (existing vs. new)

  • Assessing hospital acquisition costs (given lack of transparency and data)

  • Aligning payment with value and efficiency

  • Establishing methodologies that reflect true costs and value, given the lack of cost comparators and limited claims data
    The OPPS questions center on the hospital setting, hospital purchasing behavior, and how to model SaaS costs fairly in the APC payment system.

Physician Fee Schedule (PFS) Solicitation:
Under the PFS, CMS focuses more on how SaaS costs fit into the existing Practice Expense (PE) methodology, which relies on outdated data not designed for software-heavy services. CMS raises concerns about:

  • How to treat software and AI licensing as direct vs. indirect costs

  • The fact that indirect cost allocations (from the AMA PPI survey) do not capture SaaS well

  • Whether to continue the practice of crosswalking from OPPS payment levels

  • How to capture physician work value related to interpreting SaaS outputs

  • How SaaS fits into value-based and risk-based care models, especially for chronic disease management

The PFS solicitation asks broader questions about future pricing strategies for SaaS, including potential alignment with OPPS data, and reflects a deeper concern with how SaaS will integrate into evolving models of physician practice and primary care delivery.


Summary of the Difference:

  • OPPS = Facility-based perspective: Focused on how hospitals purchase and use SaaS, how APCs should classify and price it, and concerns over acquisition costs and claims data.

  • PFS = Physician-based perspective: Focused on the practice expense methodology, the physician's role in interpreting SaaS, and how SaaS integrates into physician payment models, particularly risk-based care and chronic disease management.

If you'd like, I can prepare a comparative memo summarizing these differences for stakeholders or clients.

####

HUMOR

Here is a comment by comedian Lewis Black.)

MOCK COMMENT LETTER TO CMS:

If you'd like, I can help you draft a formal comment letter addressing these points.

YES, Provide a consolidated single response letter to both solicitations, from a hypothetical organization that provides software and AI in both physician office and hospital outpatient settings.

####

####

Thank you for clarifying. Below is a more detailed, narrative-style consolidated comment letter, written in the voice of a sophisticated industry stakeholder. It includes more context, nuance, and specific recommendations to reflect the complexity of the issues CMS has raised in both the OPPS and PFS proposed rules. This version moves beyond brief bullet points and provides substantive rationale for each point, while staying focused and professional.


[Your Organization Letterhead]
[Your Organization Name]
[Address]
[City, State ZIP]
[Date]

SUBMITTED ELECTRONICALLY VIA REGULATIONS.GOV

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)
Department of Health and Human Services
Attn: CMS-XXXX-P (CY 2026 OPPS Proposed Rule)
Attn: CMS-XXXX-P (CY 2026 PFS Proposed Rule)


RE: Comments on Proposed Policies for Software as a Service (SaaS) and AI-Based Technologies in the CY 2026 OPPS and PFS Rules

Dear Administrator Dr. Oz:

[Organization Name] appreciates the opportunity to provide comments on the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS’s) solicitation regarding payment policies for Software as a Service (SaaS), including AI-enabled technologies, in the CY 2026 Hospital Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS) and Physician Fee Schedule (PFS) proposed rules.

Our membership provides advanced clinical software and AI-based solutions widely adopted in both physician office and hospital outpatient settings, so we are uniquely positioned to comment on the challenges and opportunities in creating consistent, equitable, and forward-looking Medicare payment policies for these technologies.

We commend CMS for recognizing the policy gaps that have emerged as the healthcare industry shifts from equipment-centered models toward software-centric clinical innovations. However, we also want to emphasize the significant risks to innovation and patient access if CMS continues without a clear, coherent, and sustainable framework for these services across Medicare’s payment systems.


I. Comments on OPPS Solicitation

CMS’s questions under OPPS rightly recognize the structural problem: the current APC-based system was never designed to accommodate SaaS-based technologies whose cost structures and clinical impacts differ fundamentally from traditional devices or equipment. Without reform, CMS risks undermining access to services that hospitals increasingly rely on to deliver efficient, evidence-based care.

Challenges Under OPPS

Hospitals face genuine difficulty aligning acquisition and reimbursement for SaaS products. Unlike traditional devices, SaaS costs often appear as operational expenses—licensing, service fees, updates, cybersecurity protections—rather than capital assets tied to individual procedures. Yet CMS payment through OPPS remains deeply rooted in equipment-centric models. Hospitals are left uncertain about whether and how these costs will be recognized in Medicare payment.

Further, SaaS often delivers value that is distributed across multiple episodes of care or service lines, making direct attribution to a single APC problematic. For example, an AI-driven cardiac risk assessment platform may support imaging, outpatient consults, and chronic care management, but current CMS frameworks force hospitals to seek reimbursement through fragmented, ill-fitting APCs.

Additionally, CMS’s reliance on sparse claims data for setting payment rates creates circularity: innovative technologies, by definition, lack historical volume; low payment leads to underutilization, which in turn depresses future payment updates.

Recommended Solutions

We encourage CMS to:

  1. Establish distinct, dedicated APCs (or an analogous mechanism) for SaaS technologies. These could reflect tiers of complexity and clinical impact rather than attempting to fit novel services into legacy APCs designed for devices or physical interventions. This would create predictability for hospitals and technology developers alike.

  2. Consider a hybrid valuation model that blends acquisition cost benchmarking with assessments of clinical value and efficiency gains. Software’s impact often lies in reducing unnecessary services (e.g., avoidable imaging) or improving diagnostic accuracy. Payment should not be solely backward-looking but reflect prospective value to Medicare beneficiaries.

  3. Provide clear guidance to hospitals on cost reporting for SaaS expenses. Absent this clarity, hospitals may inconsistently report these costs, further distorting claims data used in rate-setting. CMS could issue standardized methodologies for accounting for SaaS in cost reports and claims submissions.

  4. Coordinate with PFS policy to ensure alignment. Hospitals and physicians often use the same SaaS platforms; inconsistent valuation undermines adoption and confuses purchasers.


II. Comments on PFS Solicitation

Under the Physician Fee Schedule, CMS faces related but distinct challenges. The Practice Expense (PE) methodology is outdated and structurally incapable of capturing SaaS technologies accurately. The PE allocation methodology assumes that expenses are either clinical labor, medical supplies, or equipment—categories which do not reflect the operational realities of modern software platforms.

Challenges Under PFS

CMS’s current practice of treating SaaS and AI expenses as indirect costs fails to recognize that for many services, software is not incidental—it is integral to the provision of care. For example, AI-based diagnostic algorithms may function as the primary tool through which physicians interpret patient data. Treating these costs as part of overhead ignores their direct connection to clinical activity.

Further, the AMA’s PPI survey data is insufficient for modeling SaaS costs at the granularity required for precise valuation. Crosswalking to OPPS (when available) is an imperfect but necessary interim step, though it risks perpetuating the structural mismatch described above.

Lastly, CMS’s questions about chronic disease management rightly acknowledge that SaaS is deeply entwined with emerging care models—virtual care, remote monitoring, team-based approaches—that do not fit legacy fee-for-service assumptions. Without modernized PE valuation, physician adoption of high-value tools will lag.

Recommended Solutions

  1. Revise the PE methodology to treat SaaS as a direct cost when it is necessary for service delivery. This would reflect reality: clinicians increasingly rely on licensed software for tasks central to diagnosis and treatment.

  2. Develop a forward-looking, transparent methodology for SaaS valuation within PFS. This could include:

    • Reference to OPPS payment rates where aligned.

    • Consideration of licensing models (e.g., per-use vs. enterprise agreements).

    • Recognition of recurring costs for updates and cybersecurity.

    • Incorporation of efficiency and quality metrics where measurable.

  3. Acknowledge SaaS as foundational to chronic disease management models. CMS’s movement toward advanced primary care and risk-based models will increasingly rely on AI, predictive analytics, and data integration platforms. Payment policies must not inadvertently discourage adoption of these tools.

  4. Engage industry stakeholders in structured dialogue to refine policies. We recommend convening a technical expert panel that includes SaaS developers, health economists, physician groups, and hospital representatives to help CMS develop durable, future-proof solutions.


III. Cross-System Considerations

We urge CMS to recognize the need for harmonization between OPPS and PFS policies to avoid perverse incentives and confusion. SaaS tools do not inherently change function when used in a hospital outpatient department versus a physician’s office; payment policy should reflect this reality.

Further, CMS’s concern about fiscal responsibility is valid, but the long-term value of SaaS lies precisely in its ability to prevent higher downstream costs through improved diagnostics, reduced unnecessary care, and better chronic disease management. Payment models must evolve to support these outcomes, not undermine them.


Conclusion

We applaud CMS’s willingness to confront these emerging challenges. However, inaction or piecemeal approaches will create fragmentation, stifle innovation, and limit beneficiary access to technologies that support more accurate, efficient, and equitable care.

We look forward to continued engagement with CMS and stand ready to provide further input as policies develop.

Sincerely,

[Name]
[Title]
[Organization Name]


 In a Linked In Comment, Dr Lennerz recommend readers see two AMA resources.  CMAA Clinically Meaningful Algorithmic Analysis.  AMA Appendix S here.   AMA Digital Medicine Workgroup here.